Why has Australia switched tack on Covid zero?

 


Australia has changed its Covid strategy: it's time to leave lockdowns and "come out of the cave", Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said.

With vaccinations accelerating, he says Australians will soon "live with the virus" for the first time - that is, not try to eliminate it.

It's a drastic shift for a country used to seeing very few infections.

What was the strategy?

It was what some dubbed the "Fortress Australia" plan.

Australia aimed to maintain "Covid zero" by blocking foreign arrivals, hunting for every infection, and shutting state borders after outbreaks.

City and state-wide lockdowns have been frequently enacted - sometimes after a single case.

Melbourne, for example, has lived through over 200 days of lockdown in the last two years.

Such measures have drawn criticism for their cost to people's livelihoods and mental wellbeing.


So what changed?

The Delta variant upended Australia's playbook. In June, it took hold in Sydney before spreading to Melbourne and Canberra.

State governments plunged their capitals back into lockdown. Currently, one in two Australians must stay home.

It has helped to suppress the spread. In Sydney, the R number - the rate at which the virus is spreading - has dropped from 5 to 1.3.

But authorities have said Covid zero is no longer achievable.

That's intensified criticism on the Morrison government over Australia's low vaccination levels, with many accusing it of complacency. Mr Morrison had in April claimed vaccinating was "not a race".

But he has now followed the New South Wales state government is saying that vaccinations are Australia's only path to reopening. Victoria - which includes Melbourne - has this week also abandoned Covid zero.

So what's the new plan?

About 36% of Australians over 16 are fully vaccinated - far from enough to exit lockdowns, experts say.

"This groundhog day has to end, and it will end when we start getting to 70% and 80%," Mr Morrison said last week.

But Australia is picking up pace - it is now jabbing arms faster than the UK and US did at their peaks.

At current rates, Australia could vaccinate 70% of its over-16s by mid-October.

The nation has also begun vaccinating children over 12.

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